[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200031 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MN...ERN ND...ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200031Z - 200230Z

A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC CELLS IS MOVE EWD ACROSS FAR ERN ND INTO NW
MN. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE
STABLE AIR ACROSS NCNTRL MN. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG CELLS IS IN
ERN SD. THIS CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO FAR SWRN
MN THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A NEW WW
WILL BE NECESSARY EAST OF WW 218 AND 219 AND WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS NERN SD WITH A TONGUE OF 60+ SFC
DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO FAR NWRN MN. A STRONG
GRADIENT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN NRN MN AND THE CELLS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOME AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DRIER AIR ACROSS NRN
MN. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN SRN MN WITH 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS ADVANCING NWD ACROSS SWRN
MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS SWRN MN AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY HELP THE CONVECTION ORGANIZED INTO AN MCS.
THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM MSP SHOWS AN MLCAPE VALUE AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE 750 MB. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

..BROYLES.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

44639366 44009437 43889595 44219762 46509755 48749741
48929578 48699416 48319346 45519349 

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