[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200012 
MNZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-200215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN IA INTO SERN MN AND WCENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 220...

VALID 200012Z - 200215Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM OVER NCENTRAL IA WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK IN A GENERAL EWD DIRECTION AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE NEXT 2
HOURS. AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD...THIS STORM MAY BECOME
MORE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THUS INCREASING THE TORNADO
THREAT. ADDITIONALLY MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF WW 220.

LONE SUPERCELL OVER KOSSUTH CO IN NCENTRAL IA AT 00Z WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EWD AROUND 20 KTS PER SLATER PROFILER DATA AND RECENT
TRENDS. WITH THIS CONTINUED MOTION...THIS STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
NERN PART OF WW 220 SHORTLY AFTER 02Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THIS SUPERCELL APPEARS LESS LIKELY AS STRONG
INHIBITION REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUPPRESSING UPDRAFT ATTEMPTS TO THE
WEST OF THE DSM AREA IN THE LAST 2 HOURS. AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE QUICKLY NWD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE SUPERCELL OVER NCENTRAL IA MAY BEGIN TO
TAP SURFACE LAYER PARCELS THAT WOULD AID IN AN INCREASING THE LOW
LEVEL CAPE AND TORNADO THREAT. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTS
75/68 WOULD BE NECESSARY TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS TO BE
REALIZED BY THIS SUPERCELL OVER NCENTRAL IA. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
EVIDENT BY THE SLATER PROFILER WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2
WOULD AN SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN THIS SCENARIO.

..CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

41239514 44079497 44069272 43519280 41219306 

44239345 44609369 44879311 44969252 44949149 44829096
44479068 44269067 43809140 

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