[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201011 
MIZ000-201215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201011Z - 201215Z

STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH LAKE MI MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS SRN HALF OF
LOWER MI NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

EARLY THIS MORNING AN MCS IS MOVING EWD THROUGH S CNTRL LAKE MI AT
AROUND 45 KT. THESE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION AND
FEED OF HIGH THETA-E AIR ACCOMPANYING THE NRN BRANCH SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET. ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WITH RESPECT TO THE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BACKBUILDING ALONG
THE SWRN FLANKS. RADAR TRENDS ALSO SHOW STORMS ALONG ERN FLANKS HAVE
EVOLVED INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE AND ARE TRYING TO FORWARD
PROPAGATE. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE AIR DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS LOWER MI SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL OF
ANY FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME AS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EWD
THROUGH SERN CANADA...AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE STORMS MAY OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

..DIAL.. 05/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRR...

43018615 43718646 43688486 42688483 42298572 42318617 

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