[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192309 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL SD...SERN ND...NW MN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 219...

VALID 192309Z - 200045Z

A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS ONGOING IN NERN AND CNTRL SD. SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER
CELLS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NRN PART OF TORNADO WATCH 219.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AND SHOULD REACH ABR
AND PIR AROUND 0100Z. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS HELPED
INITIATE CELLS ORIENTED IN A LINE. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S
F AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1600 TO 1800 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER NWRN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EWD INTO ERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD TOWARD
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SERN PART OF
TORNADO WATCH 219. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 11000 FEET.

..BROYLES.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

45839970 47379864 47509833 47529733 47449612 47299595
45509717 43969816 43769854 43809960 43770061 44030064 

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