[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192220 
MNZ000-NDZ000-200015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218...

VALID 192220Z - 200015Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS LOCATED ALONG A FRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS NCNTRL ND WITH ANOTHER TORNADIC CELL IN THE SERN PART OF WW
218. OTHER STORMS OVER WCNTRL ND...WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL ND. THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS FAR NRN ND WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CNTRL ND AND WCNTRL SD. A MOIST AXIS EXISTS
EAST OF THE FRONT WITH 60+ SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS ERN ND AND ECNTRL SD
WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING
DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND AS
THIS LIFT SHIFTS ESEWD...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF WW 218. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MID-LEVEL JET MAX IN PLACE ACROSS SW ND. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS
EWD...DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD DROP SOME BUT 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 KT SUGGESTING THE SUPERCELL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

47509852 47520113 47550177 48010182 48790177 48960135
48849800 48589717 47779723 47499731 

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