[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192052 
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-192245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE  NEWD INTO FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192052Z - 192245Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM THE WRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD
INTO FAR NWRN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LACK OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS. THUS A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR OBSERVED CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
INDICATED THAT ONLY 25 J/KG OF MLCIN REMAINS ALONG THE PRIMARY
DRYLINE FROM NEAR CVS NEWD TO NEAR GAG...WHERE 500-1000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE EXISTED. RECENT TRENDS OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER NRN TX
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NM MAY AID IN NWD
MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF ANY CONVECTION
CAN OVERCOME THE REMAINING CIN THROUGH CONVERGENCE...OR IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER 2 DEG F...LARGE TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 DEG F WILL ALLOW ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT  WOULD BE
DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND 20-25 KTS OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER.

..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

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