[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192003 
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-192200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NW IA THROUGH E CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192003Z - 192200Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT AND WW.

MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING
FORCING FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST OF SIOUX CITY IA. 
THIS IS JUST NORTH OF MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NOW
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST
MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  

WARMING ALOFT MAY BE INHIBITIVE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO
PRECLUDE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...WITH ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTION
LIKELY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REDWOOD FALLS VICINITY INTO AREAS
WEST/NORTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS SHORTLY. MODELS SUGGEST CAPE FOR
PARCELS BASED IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER IS INCREASING INTO THE 1000
TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THIS REGION... SUPPORTING RISK OF LARGE
HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.

..KERR.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FSD...

42699651 43699638 44449575 45579529 46349444 46039322
45029348 43729406 43089463 42529510 42429564 

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