[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191935 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-192130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD INTO ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191935Z - 192130Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.  ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF SURFACE LOW...NOW EAST
NORTHEAST OF MINOT...IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION.  TROUGH
EXTENDS INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF PIERRE SD...WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER/MID 80S.  DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 60F JUST EAST OF TROUGH...AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM IN
EXCESS OF 80F NORTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...POTENTIAL
FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

BY THE 19/20-20/00Z TIME FRAME...AXIS OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY FROM JUST WEST OF GRAND FORKS ND
INTO AREAS EAST PIERRE SD.  THIS SHOULD BECOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. 
50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW TAKING ON INCREASINGLY WESTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE LOW...LIKELY TO BE
NEAR/NORTH OF GRAND FORKS BY 20/20Z.

..KERR.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

49029497 46829635 45239727 44459974 46019953 47229875
48049773 49029715 

WWWW