[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191929 
TXZ000-NMZ000-192200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ECENTRAL NM AND PORTIONS OF WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191929Z - 192200Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MTNS
INTO THE LOWER PLAINS OF SERN NM MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE THE THREAT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INTENSIFYING JUST EAST OFF THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS WHERE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN AXIS OF
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDED UP THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. HIGH
BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION WITH LCLS AROUND 650 MB WOULD SUPPORT
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. MODERATE PRESSURE FALLS AND
RECENT BACKING LOW LEVEL PROFILES OVER ERN/SERN NM INDICATE THAT
ADVERTISED STRENGTHENING SSELY LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WAS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE. THIS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY AID IN SUPPORTING A FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO ECENTRAL NM AND WRN PORTIONS OF
THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LACK OF
STRONGER WIND FIELDS IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31970555 33240580 34340544 34650425 34430287 33110249
32220316 31810413 

WWWW