[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191901 
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-192100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL VA INTO FAR SRN MD/DELMARVA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191901Z - 192100Z

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CLEARING TREND WILL
CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL VA INTO SRN MD AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER THE AREA WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL AID IN CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
WELL DEFINED VORT OVER CENTRAL WV AND FAR NWRN VA HAS A 30-35 KT
WNWLY MID LEVEL WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SPEED MAX OVERLAID
OVER SWLY 15-20 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE ABOUT 40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY SHORT
LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

37307619 37417905 38047937 38377886 38847833 38817676
38287496 37217532 

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