[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191845 
NDZ000-192045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191845Z - 192045Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS READILY EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA.  THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS OCCURS...MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA...ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL COOLING ABOVE RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS RECEIVING AMPLE HEATING.

MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG... AND WILL
INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
OF THE MINOT AREA NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE.  GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48879775 47879817 47659994 47360157 47900251 48460190
48940142 

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