[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191718 
NCZ000-VAZ000-191915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA AND FAR NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191718Z - 191915Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA INTO SCENTRAL AND SERN VA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER THAN THE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NRN VA INTO FAR SWRN VA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING VORT MAX MOVING
EWD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION ON THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH HAS
BEGUN TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN VA.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 17Z ANALYSIS INDICATING MUCAPES AROUND
2000 J/KG...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SCENTRAL/SERN VA AND
NCENTRAL/NERN NC DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE SHEAR IS
EVIDENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED VORT MAX...WITH RECENT REGIONAL VWP/S
INDICATING AROUND 25 KTS OF 2-4 KM WINDS. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF
THE FLOW FIELD INDICATES THAT A LINEAR MODE WILL BE PREDOMINANT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG COLD
POOL CAN DEVELOP WITH INCIPIENT LINE AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL
VA/NCENTRAL NC AND MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL WAA CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...THEN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE.

..CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

36097894 36548001 36907983 37237883 37057675 36877596
35997597 

WWWW