[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190217 
MOZ000-KSZ000-190415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN MO...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 190217Z - 190415Z

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER PORTIONS NWRN MO...AND WILL SPREAD/SHIFT
ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MO BY APPROXIMATELY 6Z. MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL...ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NEAR TBN WNWWD TO
SRN-MOST FRINGES OF MKC METRO AREA -- THEN SWWD THROUGH EMP TO NEAR
P28.  FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH AROUND 6Z THEN
BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NWD THEREAFTER.  GREATEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT WHERE PARCELS ARE
ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC.  REGION IS ON NERN EDGE OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500-1700 J/KG OVER MKC
AREA...DIMINISHING NEWD.  850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES 13-14 DEG C DEW
POINTS JUST UPSTREAM.  EXPECT MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
-- ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB FLOW THAT SHOULD INCREASE TO 25-35 KT --
TO MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY INCREASE ELEVATED CAPE OVER THIS
REGION AS LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.  CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP N OF SFC FRONT AND SPREAD ESEWD...FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH RUC PRECIP GUIDANCE FROM PAST 2-3 RUNS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

38209293 38689450 38659541 39329534 39819479 40169413
40229332 39759213 39029167 38379197 

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