[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182349 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-190215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN PA...SRN NJ...DE...NRN MD...NERN
VA...DC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182349Z - 190215Z

LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING AT 2330Z FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY PA SWD TO
HAMPSHIRE COUNTY WV SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
ABOUT 3Z.  MAIN THREAT IS GUSTS THAT ARE SUB-SEVERE -- BELOW 50 KT
CRITERIA LEVEL -- BUT STILL CAPABLE OF INTERMITTENT DAMAGE.  WW NOT
EXPECTED.

AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS NEAR PEAK ATTM.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE CURRENTLY...WITH APPROXIMATELY 500-700
J/KG DCAPE.  EXPECT DCAPE TO WEAKEN AS SFC COOLING
CONTINUES...HOWEVER LOCALIZED DOWNDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE
DAMAGING GUSTS.  CAPE ALSO SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY IN INFLOW
LAYER...WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK
-- I.E. LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH 0-6 KM AGL LAYER...WITH GENERALLY
UNIFORM SPEEDS AROUND 20-25 KT THROUGH 300-800 MB LAYER.  WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST LOW POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED EVENT.

..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

39187887 40187647 40277558 40047468 39737448 39167476
38827572 38687747 38647858 

WWWW