[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190652 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-190945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NE KS THROUGH N CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 190652Z - 190945Z

THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS NERN/E CNTRL KS THROUGH 
N CNTRL MO NEXT FEW HOURS. UNLESS STORMS CAN BECOME MORE FORWARD 
PROPAGATING...IN WHICH CASE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MIGHT
INCREASE...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS MORNING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL MO WWD THROUGH
S CNTRL KS. TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW LEVEL AIR BELOW STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN FRONTAL ZONE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WITH RESPECT TO THE E-W FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS
MAY CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD AND SUBSEQUENTLY TRAIN EWD ALONG AND N OF
THE FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS SETUP WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. NEW CELLS DEVELOPING ON WRN EDGE OF
THE MCS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO STRONGER INSTABILITY...SUGGESTING THEY
ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW STORMS
DEVELOPING IN CASS AND BATES COUNTIES ARE TRYING TO EVOLVE INTO A
FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. HOWEVER...A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORMS TO REMAIN INTENSE AS
THEY FORWARD PROPAGATE WOULD BE MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DOWNSTREAM. ALSO SWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
STRONGER CAP FARTHER S.

..DIAL.. 05/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

39187887 40187647 40277558 40047468 39737448 39167476
38827572 38687747 38647858 

WWWW