[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182327 
MOZ000-KSZ000-190130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS AND NWRN/WCENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182327Z - 190130Z

THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION MAY CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 01Z.

VIS SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS ORGANIZING
ABOVE SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION TO THE SW OF THE KC METRO AREA.
ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER OLD MCS COLD POOL
ACROSS NWRN MO SHOULD CONTINUE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND ALSO POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. RECENT HAVILAND PROFILER DATA
SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WV IMAGERY ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS FEATURE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THIS
AREA ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LIFT FROM THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
AID IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ALONG AND NORTH OF SHALLOW
FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY...ANTICIPATED ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION ALONG WITH WEAK MUCAPE IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WILL LIMIT
THE TORNADO THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38129613 38299662 39169637 39969462 39909395 39469344
38709317 38289341 38089368 37939418 

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