[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182315 COR
INZ000-ILZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-190045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IL...INDIANA...OH...NRN WV...WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215...216...

VALID 182315Z - 190045Z

CORRECTED FOR MISSING WORD

SEVERAL BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS
WW AREAS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT
REDUCTION OF SBCAPE.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER SCHEDULED 00Z EXPIRATION OF THESE
WWS.  HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE AND/OR LONG-LIVED
ENOUGH ATTM TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE BEYOND 00Z.

N-S BAND OF CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL/SRN IL WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
SERN IL INTO SWRN INDIANA AND NRN KY...AND HAS SHOWN CONSIDERABLE
DISORGANIZATION TREND IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DURING PAST HOUR. 
ENVIRONMENT IN FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND
1500 J/KG MLCAPE...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES
AND LESS THAN 15 KT OR LESS ABSOLUTE SPEEDS THROUGH LOWEST 3-4 KM
AGL.  POST-CONVECTIVE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL COLD
POOL TO FORCE ASCENT...THEREFORE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. 
FARTHER E ACROSS SRN OH/SRN INDIANA/NRN WV...AIR MASS REMAINS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG
FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EVIDENT WITH 20 KT OR LESS FLOW IN 500-300 MB LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

38318915 39418907 39979071 40099067 40848901 41158743
38648745 

38878740 40148742 40248604 40388543 40528525 40748519
40988490 40988453 40098301 40208225 40528165 40708154
41058106 41097926 39317929 

WWWW