[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182129 
TXZ000-182330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182129Z - 182330Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION
FROM THE CDS AREA SWD INTO THE PECOS VALLEY. MARGINAL NATURE AND
SHORT DURATION OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE. 

DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EVIDENT FROM OBSERVATIONS NEAR 100/50 OVER
THE REGION ALONG WITH MLCAPES FROMM 500-1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR A
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CDS SWWD TO NEAR FST.
OVERALL THREAT REMAINS MARGINAL AND DIURNAL NATURE WILL FURTHER
LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED POTENTIAL.

..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31440268 32220254 33620174 34620055 34680020 34460002
33950010 30980222 31070285