[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182128 
KSZ000-182330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182128Z - 182330Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ICT IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR IF
DEEPER CONVECTION IS NOTED.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CIN WAS WEAKENING TO THE NW-NE
OF ICT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS BEING MAXIMIZED AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY APPEARED TO BE MERGING WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. ELSEWHERE
CIN WAS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AS EVIDENT BY WAVE CLOUDS. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG
PER THE 18Z LAMONT OK SOUNDING. LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION CAN OCCUR. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES / 10-15 KTS 0-1 KM
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZONE/ BUT
GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY A TORNADO WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

37459619 37329768 37139868 37279881 37579890 37989829
38099751 38259643 38189530 38099525 37849515 37489551