[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182224 
VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-NHZ000-190030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN PA...NY...SRN VT/NH...WRN MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217...

VALID 182224Z - 190030Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING OVERALL IN MOST OF WW...THOUGH ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
BAND FROM DELAWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES NY ENEWD OVER PORTIONS SRN VT AND
SRN NH.  ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...AND WW 217 MAY BE
CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE
AS ANTICIPATED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THERMAL AXIS FROM NRN NJ UP HUDSON VALLEY
TO NEAR GFL...AND MOIST AXIS PARALLEL BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER E
REACHING MAX OF 68 F SFC DEW POINT OVER SRN VT.  RUC SOUNDING
MODIFIED FOR THIS OPTIMAL OBSERVATION YIELDS APPROXIMATELY 1200 J/KG
MLCAPE...THOUGH 500-1000 APPEARS PREVALENT OVER MOST OF PRE-STORM
AREA.  EXPECT INSTABILITY TO DIMINISH BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH EWD
EXTENT...AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER EWD
MOISTURE RESULT IN LOWER THETAE IN STORM INFLOW LAYER. 
MEANWHILE...A FEW TSTMS MAY MOVE EWD OUT OF NY WITH MARGINAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE...PARTICULARLY WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS IN
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY.

..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...GYX...BOX...

41087903 41527908 43097669 43617464 43797330 42057331 

43747321 44237183 43727100 42907160 42187244 42037322 

WWWW