[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182043 
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-182215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN VT AND NH WRN MA NWRN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182043Z - 182215Z

AREA WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO HEATING FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...WHICH
WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER
...CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK AND STORMS TO THE WEST OVER NY HAVE YET
TO STRENGTHEN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...HOWEVER WW NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

PRESSURE FALLS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND UNDER SSWLY LLJ
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH NOW PUSHING EWD ACROSS ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...CLEARING SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED ERN EXTENT OF MODERATE SBCAPE AXIS TO SPREAD INTO WRN
NEW ENGLAND.  SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE AREA...AND STRONG CELL
IS NOW MOVING INTO RUTLAND COUNTY VT.  HOWEVER... STORMS ACROSS NY
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FAILED TO INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY FURTHER HINDER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CAPE/SHEAR REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LATEST INDICATIONS
SUGGEST WW NOT NECESSARY ATTM.

..EVANS.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

44367323 44377122 43367121 41977183 41907315 

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