[MCD] SWOMCD
MCD at goshenarc.org
MCD at goshenarc.org
Tue May 18 21:29:47 UTC 2004
ACUS11 KWNS 182128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182128
KSZ000-182330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004
AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 182128Z - 182330Z
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ICT IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. A WW WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR IF
DEEPER CONVECTION IS NOTED.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CIN WAS WEAKENING TO THE NW-NE
OF ICT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS BEING MAXIMIZED AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY APPEARED TO BE MERGING WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. ELSEWHERE
CIN WAS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AS EVIDENT BY WAVE CLOUDS. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG
PER THE 18Z LAMONT OK SOUNDING. LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF THUNDERSTORM INITIATION CAN OCCUR. LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES / 10-15 KTS 0-1 KM
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ZONE/ BUT
GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY A TORNADO WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.
..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
37459619 37329768 37139868 37279881 37579890 37989829
38099751 38259643 38189530 38099525 37849515 37489551
WWWW
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