[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182038 
NYZ000-182245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW YORK STATE...NRN PENNSYLVANIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217...

VALID 182038Z - 182245Z

CONTINUE WW.

SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR...BUT LATEST
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW AROUND
1500 J/KG SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ALBANY AREA.  ALTHOUGH PRIMARY
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED NORTH/EAST
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS NEAR
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
HUDSON VALLEY. THIS MAY SUPPORT EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT/
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY NOW NEAR/WEST OF THE UTICA AND ITHACA AREAS.  ENHANCED BY
40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER BELT OF
WESTERLIES...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43157597 43327510 43617442 43567381 42887349 42097394
42317540 42587669