[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182002 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-182200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IN...OH...WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216...

VALID 182002Z - 182200Z

CONTINUE WW.

CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME NORTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IN WAKE
OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...HAS
BEEN FOCUS FOR INCREASING/INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
PERHAPS AIDED BY AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET SHIFTING TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY..CLUSTER OF STORMS
CURRENTLY EVOLVING NEAR FINDLAY OH SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR...BETWEEN ZANESVILLE OH AND
PITTSBURGH PA...NEXT FEW HOURS.  POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MAY INCREASE AS SMALL SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH EVOLVES BENEATH 30
TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.

UPSTREAM...CONVECTIVE BAND LIKELY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

..KERR.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...

40688719 41018613 41008421 41018340 40748187 40318046
39788083 39388217 39728326 40088553 39888696 

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