[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181938 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 215...

VALID 181938Z - 182145Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.

2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF WEAK CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN 19Z SURFACE DATA NEAR/EAST OF
SPRINGFIELD IL.  ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...NEAR PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NEAR CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED COLD POOL SHIFTING NORTH OF ST. LOUIS...APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THROUGH 21-22Z.  BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1500 J/KG.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL/HEAVY RAIN...AND NEW SURFACE COLD
POOL/MESO HIGH MAY DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF ST. LOUIS INTO THE DECATUR
IL AREA.

..KERR.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

39829003 40188934 40568778 39148750 38338908 38209059
39249036 

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