[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181922 
KSZ000-182115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181922Z - 182115Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT AND WW.  NEED FOR WW STILL APPEARS AT LEAST SEVERAL
HOURS AWAY.

MID-LEVEL WARMING/HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
SHIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  POTENTIAL FOR NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE INITIATION
HAS BEEN FURTHER HAMPERED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KANSAS.  HOWEVER...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING...
BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING NORTH OF THE CHANUTE/EMPORIA
AND HUTCHINSON AREAS...INTO VICINITY OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT...ROUGHLY
NEAR/NORTH OF RUSSELL/MANHATTAN AND KANSAS CITY.

WITH FURTHER SURFACE HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY INCREASE TO
NEAR 2000 J/KG IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT...WHERE CAP IS WEAKEST
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION IS FOCUSED ON NOSE OF 30 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  FORCING MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD THE 19/00Z
TIME FRAME.  IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH BELT OF
MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. 
LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE.

..KERR.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

39369762 39589696 39629592 39169498 38729507 38379568
38479660 38509781 38559856 

WWWW