[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181843 
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-182045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN ID AND SWRN MT/NWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181843Z - 182045Z

THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ID MAY POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS THEY PROGRESS ENEWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN ID.
ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NERN ID AND SWRN
MT/NWRN WY MAY INTENSIFY AND EVENTUALLY POSE SOME THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY AREAWIDE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT AND THUS WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH 21Z.

VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING TREND OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ID
AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ
HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. MID LEVEL WIND SPEED
MAX OVER ERN ID...WITH VWP DATA FROM POCOTELLO SUGGESTING AROUND 50
KTS AT 6 KM...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ROTATION WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FROM NERN ID INTO NWRN WY/SWRN MT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
IN THIS REGION IS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR
MARGINAL INSTABILITY /100-250 J/KG OF MUCAPE/.

..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

42801506 43561559 44101540 44531443 45241265 45671107
45550973 44670948 43581008 42861170 

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