[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181854 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-182030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN PA NJ FAR SRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181854Z - 182030Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...IF
ACTIVITY OVER WRN PA INCREASES OR STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER
ERN PA.

AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 80F. THIS IS NOW SUPPORTING AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING EWD
INTO CENTRAL PA FROM THE WEST...WHILE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR INTO
ERN PA AS FORECAST BY MODELS. THOUGH CURRENT SHEAR VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MARGINAL /20-30 KT FROM SFC-6 KM/...APPEARS
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINES/CLUSTERS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.
 ASSOCIATED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY
WARRANT WW THROUGH AROUND 02Z.

..EVANS.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

39377914 41077906 41837351 39667415 

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