[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181714 
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-181915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...NRN/WRN MD...D.C AND FAR NERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181714Z - 181915Z

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER ERN WV ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AND MAY
BEGIN TO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IN THE 1-2 HRS OVER NWRN VA AND WRN/NRN MD.

SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND RECENT VWP DATA
FROM CHARLESTON WV HAS BEGUN TO AID IN ORGANIZING CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WV. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION OVER NRN VA/WRN AND NRN MD WITH LATEST
OBAN SUGGESTING AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG OF MUCAPE FROM SERN VA INTO
NRN VA/WRN MD. AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THIS AREA IT IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE POSING A MARGINAL SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT. AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER PA/OH...WITH 20-25 KTS OF WINDS IN THE LOWEST 5
KM. THUS OVERALL LINEAR ORGANIZATION AND A GREATER DAMAGING WIND
THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

..CROSBIE.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

37567704 37737929 38367996 39157907 39577844 39387678
38367633 

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