[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181704 
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-181800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NY INTO NERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181704Z - 181800Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN NY OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INVOF LAKE BREEZES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  AFTERNOON HEATING IS NOW SUPPORTING
1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPES OVER THIS REGION.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR
OVER THIS REGION /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT/ ...SEVERE THREAT
IS INCREASING. AS STORMS INCREASE...THEY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

..EVANS.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

42357758 43697665 44967365 43497335 42037373 40877593 

WWWW