[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180448 
NEZ000-KSZ000-180715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 180448Z - 180715Z

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN A NARROW
E-W BAND ACROSS SRN NEB THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS WELL AS
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN E-W BAND ACROSS SRN NEB
WHERE PARCELS HAVE ASCENDED ISENTROPICALLY TO SATURATION NEAR 800
MB.  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY NWD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF A 35 KT LLJ FROM WRN OK INTO KS.  EXPECT
ASCENT AND STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SAME AXIS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF A MID-UPPER SPEED MAX EJECTING ENEWD FROM CO TOWARD SW NEB/NW KS.
 THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES...AND
REPEAT CONVECTION OVER THE SAME AREAS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. 
ADDITIONALLY...MUCAPE OF 1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5
C/KM...AND 25-30 KT OF SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER
MAY SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..THOMPSON.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

40349650 40259747 40189816 40089869 39919969 40110016
40479998 40659922 40729802 40739718 40659626 40329640 

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