[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180541
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180541 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-180745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 180541Z - 180745Z

PORTIONS OF NERN IL...NRN IND AND SRN MI ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
THUNDERSTORM WIND POTENTIAL. IF DATA BEGIN TO SUGGEST TRENDS FOR
INTENSIFICATION...A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS AN ORGANIZED MCS FROM PARTS OF LOWER MI SWWD
INTO NRN IL. A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR...ONE MOVING EWD
INTO WRN LOWER MI AND THE OTHER MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN IL. THE WARM
SECTOR S OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OWING TO TIME
OF DAY...BUT RUC PFC DATA SHOWS MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE SURFACE INVERSION. VWP DATA SHOW FAIRLY STRONG LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES FROM 40 TO 50 KT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KM.
THESE KINEMATIC PROFILES...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCVS WOULD SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY APPEAR
TO BE LIMITING FACTORS. IT ALSO APPEARS THE BOW ECHO MOVING EWD
THROUGH NRN IL WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ABOVE SWD SURGING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST NW OF CHICAGO.

..DIAL.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...DVN...

41168919 42778511 42148342 40898823 

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