[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180438
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180437 
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-180500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NWRN IND...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 214...

VALID 180437Z - 180500Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND NEW WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED OVER LOWER MI...

WELL DEFINED MVC...LOCATED OVER LAKE MI...CONTINUES ITS ENEWD
MOVEMENT AT ROUGHLY 35 KT TOWARD OCEANA COUNTY MI.  AIRMASS
DOWNSTREAM IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY
500J/KG.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZED MCS STRETCHES FROM THIS CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED VORT CENTER...SWWD INTO NRN IL WHERE STRONGER STORMS HAVE
AT TIMES PULSED ALONG THE TRAILING LINE.  BROAD WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO BACK SIDE OF THIS MCS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING
DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DARROW.. 05/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

43998642 44618436 44238337 43088391 40848911 40919066
42278831 43528641 

WWWW