[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172214 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-180015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172214Z - 180015Z

ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN 23Z-01Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. TSTM DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE CONDITIONAL ISOLD LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
INVOF DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE ZONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES CU/TCU ALONG NNE-SSW ORIENTED AXIS
ROUGHLY BISECTING THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. MODIFIED 20Z RUC SOUNDINGS
FEATURE ONLY MARGINAL CINH /BASED ON SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/
WITHIN WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT...WITH MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG AMIDST
WRN PERIPHERY OF MOIST AXIS. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-25 KTS/
SUGGESTS STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED/ LIMITED...HOWEVER
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST.

..GUYER.. 05/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

36870145 36980086 36930019 35770014 34330017 32700076
31610158 31770297 33020308 33930284 34840176 

WWWW