[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172250 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-180015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OH...NWRN PA...UPSTATE NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...

VALID 172250Z - 180015Z

...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING ACROSS NERN OH INTO NWRN PA/UPSTATE NY. CURRENT THINKING IS
WW WILL NOT BE EXTENDED DOWNSTREAM...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LOOSELY ORGANIZED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
ERIE...SWWD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW INTO CENTRAL OH. THIS
ACTIVITY IS PROGRESSING STEADILY EWD INTO REGION CHARACTERIZED BY
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 8C/KM...BUT SOMEWHAT
LESS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER COULD ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIURNAL COOLING LESSENS SEVERE THREAT. WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED IF
CONVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS ANTICIPATED.

..DARROW.. 05/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

40888223 42518018 43007857 41397926 40638053 

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