[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172008 
KSZ000-NEZ000-172245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...KS/FAR SE NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172008Z - 172245Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP/BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NE KS/FAR SE
NEB INTO CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY LIKELY IN THE 22Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO. 

MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE INVOF SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN CNTRL/NCNTRL KS NEWD INTO NE KS/FAR SE NEB...WHERE FRONT
INTERCEPTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS -- CHARACTERIZED BY 60-65F SFC
DEWPOINTS. 19Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONTINUALLY WEAKENING SFC BASED INHIBITION IN THIS
CORRIDOR...COINCIDENT WITH AGITATED CU FIELD PER LATEST VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH TIME...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SWWD INTO
INITIALLY GREATER CINH/NEAR TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SW KS.

MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40
KTS...AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE/LENGTH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..GUYER.. 05/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

37000118 37020153 37740167 38890150 39779938 40629764
41359613 38849552 37759738 37099921 

WWWW