[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171842 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-172045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171842Z - 172045Z

ISOLD/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITHIN ELEVATED
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA. ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RUC DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND
8.0 C/KM IN 700-500MB LAYER/ AND ELEVATED MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
500-750 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9K
FEET SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
VIGOROUS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 05/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

42109439 41499601 40649904 40559966 41650009 42459683
42919510 

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