[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171741 
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-172015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI...NORTHWEST IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171741Z - 172015Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA/WI.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN 1-3 HOURS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN WI
INTO WESTERN IA.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF FRONT
 ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN WI INTO EASTERN IA...WHERE
TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.  CURRENT SBCAPE VALUES RANGE
FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

..HART.. 05/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

42649216 43519079 44438976 46048804 45518687 43318784
42618847 42188949 41819134 41899212 

WWWW