[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171522 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-171745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NORTHERN IND...NORTHEAST IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171522Z - 171745Z

ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST
IL/NORTHERN IND INTO WESTERN LOWER MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW
MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY INTO THE
LOWER 70S.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO INCREASING INTO THE LOWER
60S...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS
ZONE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WI/IL
SHIFTS EASTWARD.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IL/NORTHERN IND/WESTERN LOWER MI SHOW RATHER STRONG WIND FIELDS
/0-6KM SHEAR OVER 40 KNOTS AND CONSIDERABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT/
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS...WITH
AN EVOLUTION TOWARD SMALL BOWS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..HART.. 05/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

42238730 43428611 44478517 44508449 42998357 41298459
40318558 40168622 40188744 40418870 41328836 41758810 

WWWW