[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170451 
KSZ000-170645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 170451Z - 170645Z

CLUSTER OF TSTMS WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM PAWNEE/STAFFORD COUNTIES
TOWARD ICT AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL
HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS.

FCST MCS FORWARD-PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATE ESEWD MOTION 20-30 KT
AS PRESENTLY OBSERVED. FOREGOING AIR MASS IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
TO SUPPORT TSTMS WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG...INDICATED BY RUC SOUNDINGS.  VWP/PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 45-55
KT SSWLY LLJ OVER THIS REGION...WHERE ETA SHORT-TERM PROGS INDICATE
MESOSCALE MAXIMA IN BOTH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AROUND 850 MB LEVEL.  THESE PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH E OF
LONGITUDE OF ICT AFTER 06Z.  ACTIVITY BEHIND INITIAL LINE WILL BE
MOVING OVER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS STABILIZED BY DIABATIC COOLING
THEN BY OUTFLOW FROM INITIAL BAND...SO STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR
WITH LEADING ACTIVITY...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH
SUCCEEDING CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

37489776 37599839 37889906 38009942 38119951 38329948
38409917 38409870 38349826 38189741 37999715 37799706
37639711 37499721 

WWWW