[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170226 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-170500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0715
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...ERN NEB....WRN IA....EXTREME NWRN
MO...SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 170226Z - 170500Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED/EPISODIC AS BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS -- NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN
PORTION WW 208 SWD INTO ERN WW 209 -- MOVES EWD ACROSS MO VALLEY
INTO PORTIONS WRN IA/SWRN MN AND PERHAPS EXTREME NWRN MO.  ANOTHER
WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY GIVEN PRESENT DOWNWARD REFLECTIVITY/IR CLOUD
TOP TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED MOTION OF CONVECTION INTO PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER INSTABILITY.  MODIFIED OAX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE POSSIBLE.  45-50 KT LLJ WILL
CONTINUE IN FOREGOING WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER WITH MUCH OF THIS FLOW
PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND...S-R FLOW IS WEAK.

..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...TOP...ICT...DDC...MPX...DMX...EAX...

40369926 41329930 42799928 42979926 43469639 40909637 

38749924 40399920 40919639 39169640 

43519641 43919617 44479476 44129432 43049389 42009425
40469493 39459545 39189638 

WWWW