[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162355 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-170200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN NEB...SERN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 208...

VALID 162355Z - 170200Z

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER WRN PORTIONS WW WILL MOVE NEWD WITH
CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS -- WITH WIND/HAIL
DAMAGE POSSIBLE -- AND BOW ECHO EVOLUTION.  SEVERAL TORNADOES AND
ROTATING WALL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED PAST HOUR IN HOLT/SHERMAN
COUNTIES FROM SEPARATE SUPERCELLS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE WITHIN TRIANGLE BOUNDED
BY BBW-LBF-ANW.  EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SHIFT NEWD ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE TOWARD AREA OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS -- NOW ANALYZED OVER
SERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN.  AS CYCLONE PASSES THROUGH REGION...VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR DISCRETE STORMS TO BECOME TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST INVOF WARM FRONT AND IN ADJACENT PORTIONS
WARM SECTOR.  500-900 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH APPEARS IN PROFILER DATA AND
RUC SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH 50-60 KT SHEAR THROUGH 0-6 KM LAYER. 
MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1500 J/KG.  50-60 KT LLJ JUST ABOVE SFC WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

40369926 41329930 42799928 42979926 43469639 40909637 

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