[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162304 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...

VALID 162304Z - 170030Z

BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING A FEW POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...EVIDENT FROM GOVE COUNTY KS NNEWD TOWARD BBW AS OF 23Z.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INVOF DRYLINE FARTHER S.  LINE OF TSTMS BETWEEN
HARLAN COUNTY NEB AND TREGO COUNTY KS WILL MOVE OUT OF WW WITHIN 1-2
HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES.  AREA FARTHER E -- TOWARD RSL/CNK/BIE...IS BEING MONITORED
FOR ADDITIONAL WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE/LEE CYCLONE BETWEEN
LBF-ANW...DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD ROUGHLY ALONG MCK-EHA LINE.  SFC
LOW SHOULD SHIFT NEWD INTO WW 208 GIVEN STRENGTH OF NERN NEB
PRESSURE FALLS.  EXPECT DRYLINE TO MOVE LITTLE OVER MOST OF WW
EXCEPT FOR EWD DRIFT IN NEB.  HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EVIDENT ATOP
RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER SERN CO AND SWRN KS -- JUST BEHIND
DRYLINE...MAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 50S F SFC DEW POINTS AND 50-60 KT 0-6 KM LAYER
SHEAR. MEANWHILE...300-400 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH EVIDENT OVER WRN
KS...SUPPORTING CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION IN DISCRETE TSTMS
SUCH AS THAT OVER GOVE COUNTY. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LCL ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS DIABATIC COOLING COMMENCES
IN PRE-STORM MOIST SECTOR.

..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

37020235 39090206 39160142 41630106 41619879 37039961 

WWWW