[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170027 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-170330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN NEB AND SERN SD

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 170027Z - 170330Z

HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HOUR -- LOCALLY APCHG 3
INCHES/HOUR...ARE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER OF TWO SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS
PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL/NERN NEB.  MCS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM THIS
ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY LATER
THIS EVENING.  THIS IS IN ADDITION TO SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL
REPRESENTED BY WW 208 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

MODIFIED OAX RAOB AND REGIONAL RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE JUST
ABOUT 1 INCH PW...HOWEVER DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FOCUS 50-60
KT LLJ INTO THIS ACTIVITY...ENHANCING S-R INFLOW AND PRECIP
EFFICIENCY.  SLOW MOVEMENT OF TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR MERGERS WILL
AUGMENT HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  WSW-ENE ORIENTATION OF BOTH CONVECTIVE
AREAS -- FIRST FROM BOONE TO CUSTER/DAWSON COUNTY AND SECOND FROM
KNOX TO LOUP COUNTIES -- IS CONDUCIVE TO ECHO TRAINING.  BOTH
CLUSTERS CONTAIN SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY PRECIP
LIKELY...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND NEWD FROM PRESENT
POSITIONS TOWARD OLU...YKN AND OFK AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41389644 41189697 40979919 40939965 41169953 41629900
41839859 41929867 41939910 41899937 41999940 42659845
43139736 43209697 43099672 42749662 41619635 

WWWW