[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162002 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-162130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162002Z - 162130Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCRS ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED OVER THE REGION
SHORTLY.

DRYLINE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED LAST 2 HOURS OVER ERN CO AND WAS
MIXING EAST TOWARD WRN KS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOISTEN AND WARM WITH LATEST RUC POINT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG...AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. EXPECT CU FIELD SOUTH OF GLD TO DEVELOP INTO TSTMS OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONVECTION INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS
GREATER INSTABILITY IS TAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK LINEAR FORCING WOULD FAVOR DISCRETE
CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 05/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

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