[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161813 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0707
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN...EXTREME NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161813Z - 162015Z

TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/ERN NEB...SERN SD...SWRN MN...AND PERHAPS NWRN IA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS SD/MN MAY REMAIN
DECOUPLED FROM BOUNDARY LAYER AND ATOP FRONTAL INVERSION... ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY AND SWD MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
BECOMING SURFACE-BASED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

WATER VAPOR...PROFILER/VWP DATA...AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS SPREADING ENEWD
ACROSS SCNTRL NEB AHEAD OF A STRONGER IMPULSE EMERGING OVER ERN CO.
THE LEADING DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO HAVE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL INFLOW
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM NWRN NEB
INTO SERN SD. MEANWHILE...STRONGEST SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS
OCCURRING BENEATH MID LEVEL WIND MAX...ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN NEB.
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND CAPPED AIRMASS ACROSS WRN KS AND SRN NEB
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE ZONE OF STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND
FUEL PRIMARILY ELEVATED TSTMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF
LARGE HAIL...EFFECTIVE/CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THE 700-300MB LAYER
NORTH OF THE FRONT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED
CELLS. A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...ACROSS SERN SD INTO NERN NEB...SHOULD PROMOTE DEEPER
MIXING AND RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INCREASING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL COULD
DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS.

..CARBIN.. 05/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

42229653 41569853 41499926 42310018 44519944 44979856
45129686 44589584 

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