[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152205 
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-152330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MID ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152205Z - 152330Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
/UNTIL ABOUT 01Z/ FROM NRN MD NEWD TO MA/SRN NH.

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM VT SWWD
ACROSS ERN NY TO SOUTH CENTRAL PA TO WV.  AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE UP TO 1000
J/KG.  STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION
OF SWLY MID-LEVEL JET. VAD WINDS FROM CENTRAL PA TO NRN VT INDICATE
35-40 KT WSWLY WINDS IN THE LAYER FROM 2-4 KM. THESE WIND SPEEDS
COMBINED WITH 20-30 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MD/DE TO SRN
NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT IS LOCATED POST-FRONTAL PER 18Z RUC...THUS ANY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

..PETERS.. 05/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

43487122 42997071 41987104 41647161 41227319 40837358
40167401 39327464 38727519 38707647 39007758 39747726
40617637 41207540 41937478 42697330 

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