[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131520 
OKZ000-TXZ000-131715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX/SWRN...CNTRL...AND NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131520Z - 131715Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER A RATHER LARGE REGION FROM NWRN TX ACROSS SWRN...
CNTRL...AND NERN OK. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE NOON FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION.

A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS SWRN/CNTRL OK AND NWRN TX WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT...AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE... WAS
CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM NWRN TX ACROSS NWRN AND NCNTRL OK. TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIAL CELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER NWRN/NCNTRL OK COULD
DEVELOP LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES BEFORE
BECOMING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE COLLISION ACROSS CNTRL OK WAS
RESULTING RAPID STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP
SHEAR IS WEAK...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH
STORMS ON THE FRONT LATER TODAY WITH LARGE MCS RESULTING. POCKETS OF
HIGHER CAPE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS COULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH TIME FROM NWRN TX ACROSS NCNTRL OK THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN.. 05/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

33439795 32939913 33310137 34220034 35529930 36499750
36959643 36079573 34229593 

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