[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152238 
TXZ000-NMZ000-160045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NM AND FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152238Z - 160045Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD PERSIST TROUGH 01Z.

ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE E SLOPE OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER W OF MRF. SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ADVECTED
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S INTO FAR W TX AND SE NM...WHICH HAS COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TO SUPPORT
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.  THOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER THIS AREA...20-25 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND
15 KT ESELY SURFACE WINDS ARE RESULTING IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN NM/FAR W TX.  IT APPEARS
THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SWD/SEWD AS A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER NRN MEXICO.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT OR LONG-LIVED.  ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
MODEST PW VALUES SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY.

..THOMPSON.. 05/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

31650637 31980626 32340603 32730593 33090560 33050496
32740480 31690470 31320437 30850348 30560343 30350430
30410476 31230591 

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