[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131454 
TXZ000-131630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...

VALID 131454Z - 131630Z

INTENSE MCS CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTH OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS COMPLEX EXTENDS FROM WRN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH...FROM
BURLESON...LEE...AND BASTROP COUNTIES...WWD AND THEN NWD INTO NWRN
TX. STRONG CONFLUENT INFLUX OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL DEEP CONVECTION WITH INDIVIDUAL
STORMS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST BUT OVERALL COMPLEX MOVING LITTLE.
UPDRAFTS ROOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM ERN TRAVIS COUNTY ACROSS NRN
BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES ARE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO HIGH VALUES
OF 0-1KM SRH DUE TO 40-50KT LLJ. FORCING...INSTABILITY AND LOW LFC
ACROSS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 05/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

30239425 29589779 30719785 31339423 

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